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Workshop on the use of meteorological uncertainty estimates for decision making during a nuclear emergency


10 September 2015, 10:00 - 16:00, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen


The workshop addressed real-time forecasting of atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides released from a nuclear installation. Meteorological uncertainties can be large and lead to uncertain atmospheric dispersion model predictions, even in the case where the radionuclide source term is known. Within the NKS-B MUD and FAUNA projects, methods for deriving and presenting these uncertainties have been developed and investigated, and the implications for decision support have been addressed.


The workshop, which was aimed at experts, model developers and decision makers, opened discussions on operational uses of uncertainty estimates. There were 28 participants.  The workshop shed light on the new possibilities for presenting real-time uncertainties for decision support and provided valuable feedback from decision makers to the further model development and implementation in current decision support systems.


The activity leader was Jens Havskov Sørensen at DMI (  


Files from the workshop:

pdf nks_fauna_workshop_participants_.pdf   pdf nks_fauna_workshop_agenda.pdf 


Workshop presentations:

pdf bjornham_foi_uncertainties_in_dispersion_modelling.pdf

pdf hoe_dema_possibilities_for_implementation_in_argos.pdf

pdf klein_met_norway_norwegian_perspective_on_uncertainties.pdf

pdf lauritzen_dtu_nutech_workshop_objectives.pdf

pdf simonsen_dmi_operational_use_of_meteorological_uncertainties_.pdf

pdf sorensen_dmi_uncertainty_of_atmospheric_dispersion_calculations_for_emergency_preparedness.pdf




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