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| NKS Programme Area: | NKS-B | | Research Area: | Emergency preparedness | | Report Number: | NKS-512 | | Report Title: | DispeRsion Analysis of early nuclear WeapoN tests (DRAWN) | | Activity Acronym: | DRAWN | | Authors: | Jens Havskov Sørensen (co-ordinator), Henrik Feddersen, Kristian Holten Møller, Magnuz Enghardt, Lennart Robertson, Jan Pehrsson, Henrik Roed, Elias Pagh Senstius, Naeem Ul Syed, Anders Axelsson, Jan Burman, Jonas Lindgren, Mikael Moring, Tuomas Peltonen, Mikko Voutilainen, | | Abstract: | The geopolitical situation involves an increased risk for use of nuclear weapons. Detonation of such weapons implies atmospheric dispersion of radioactivity posing a risk to the public also at longer distances from the detonation. Thus, there is a need for developing new, or improving existing, prediction model tools for such events aiming at enhanced civil protection.
The model systems describe the initial spatial distribution of radioactive matter, when stabilization has occurred around ten minutes after detonation, as observed in the field. This distribution is taken over by an operational atmospheric dispersion model complying with this description. In the previous NKS-B project DISARM, methods have been developed for describing this distribution as a mushroom cloud.
In DRAWN, the methods developed have been applied to and validated against selected atmospheric nuclear tests in the Nevada desert in the 1940s, 1950s, and early 1960s.
The non-hydrostatic Harmonie numerical weather prediction model has been set up and run at high resolution using ERA5 reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts describing the boundary conditions.
The KDFOC3 pseudo-nuclide approach describing the released radioactivity has been applied, and the resulting gamma dose rates compared with observations. In addition, the detailed SSM nuclide vector approach has been compared with the results of KDFOC3. The overall conclusion of this study is that the parametrized decay law very accurately reproduces the total dose rate resulting from using the nuclide vector, especially between 1 and 104 hours after detonation.
The predicted plumes are imported to the ARGOS nuclear decision-support system for presentation and dose assessment, and optimum presentation for nuclear emergency management and decision making are considered. | | Keywords: | nuclear emergency preparedness, atmospheric dispersion modelling, nuclear weapons, detonation, stabilized cloud, particle size distribution | | Publication date: | 19 Febr 2026 | | ISBN: | 978-87-7893-612-7 | | Number of downloads: | 6 | | Download: |  NKS-512.pdf |
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