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NKS Programme Area:NKS-B
Research Area:Emergency Preparedness
Report Number:NKS-484
Report Title:DISpersion of radioActivity fRom nuclear boMbs (DISARM) – first-year report
Activity Acronym:DISARM
Authors:Jens Havskov Sørensen (co-ordinator), Kristian Holten Møller, Kasper Skjold Tølløse, Lennart Robertson, Jan Burman, Leif Å. Persson, Daniel Vågberg, Jan Pehrsson, Henrik Roed, Elias Pagh Senstius, Naeem Ul Syed, Anders Axelsson, Anna Maria Blixt Buhr, Jonas Lindgren, Mikael Moring, Tuomas Peltonen, Mikko Voutilainen,
Abstract:The current geopolitical situation implies an increased risk of use of nuclear weapons, the detonation of which implies atmospheric dispersion of radioac-tivity posing a risk to the public also at long distances from the detonation. Thus, there is a need for developing new, or improving existing, prediction model tools for such events aiming at enhanced civil protection. Accordingly, the overall intention with the DISARM project is to improve the capability of predicting the atmospheric dispersion of radioactivity from detonated nuclear weapons. The model system aims at describing the initial spatial distribution of radioactive matter when stabilization has occurred around ten minutes after the detonation. This effective initial spatial distribution will be taken over by an operational atmospheric dispersion model. The first version will be based on existing descriptions and using parameters observed in the field. Preferably, the system should be able to accept NATO CBRN messaging according to the ATP-45 standard. The description of the initial phase can be improved, e.g. by incorporating recently developed de-pendences on meteorological parameters and arriving also at better descrip-tions of particle size distributions. An interface to nuclear decision-support systems has been developed. From either the geometrical field observations of the stabilized cloud, or from the yield in TNT equivalent as well as the height of burst, the interface calculates the parameters, which are required by the atmospheric dispersion model. These parameters are transferred to the dispersion model included in the re-quest for dispersion calculation. Previous NKS-B projects have demonstrated that inherent case-dependent meteorological uncertainties play a significant role for the atmospheric dis-persion model results. In DISARM, methods will be developed and applied in order to quantify the meteorological uncertainties of the predicted plumes.
Keywords:nuclear emergency preparedness, atmospheric dispersion modelling, nuclear weapons, detonation, stabilized cloud, particle size distribution
Publication date:23 Febr 2024
Number of downloads:142
Download:pdf NKS-484.pdf
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