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NKS Programme Area:NKS-B
Research Area:Emergency preparedness
Report Number:NKS-420
Report Title:Added Value of uncertainty Estimates of SOurce term and Meteorology (AVESOME)
Activity Acronym:AVESOME
Authors:Jens Havskov Sørensen (co-ordinator), Fredrik Schönfeldt, Robert Sigg, Jan Pehrsson, Bent Lauritzen, Jerzy Bartnicki, Heiko Klein, Steen Cordt Hoe, Jonas Lindgren,
Abstract:In the early phase of a nuclear accident with possible off-site consequences, e.g. resulting from core melt and breach of containment, accurate prediction of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is of utmost importance. However, two large sources of uncertainty exist: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one related to the source term, i.e. the amounts of radionuclides released and the temporal evolution of the release. In the former NKS-B projects MUD, FAUNA, and MESO, the implications of meteorological uncertainties for nuclear emergency preparedness and management were studied, and means for operational real-time assessment of the uncertainties in a nuclear DSS were developed and demonstrated. In AVESOME, a methodology has been developed for quantitative estimation of the variability of atmospheric dispersion modelling resulting from both sources of uncertainty. With modern supercomputing facilities available e.g. at national meteorological services, the proposed methodology is well suited for real-time assessments and implementation in decision support systems. The methodology adapts well to the RASTEP system, which provides a set of possible source terms and associated probabilities. In the near future, source terms derived within the EU project FASTNET will also become available, describing different release scenarios. By employing automatic communication between the DSS and the HPC facility, the methodology developed is applied to selected release scenarios and meteorological situations. Results are presented by the improved graphical user interface adhering to recommendations of the NKS Workshop on the Use of Meteorological Uncertainty Estimates for Decision Making during a Nuclear Emergency in 2015. Based on a given request for dispersion calculation at the HPC facility, the DSS user will be able to either use the probabilistic presentation of all members of the source-term ensemble, or to use the individual source term members.
Keywords:nuclear emergency preparedness, atmospheric dispersion model, source term uncertainty, meteorological uncertainty, ensemble prediction
Publication date:22 Febr 2019
ISBN:ISBN 978-87-7893-509-0
Number of downloads:3420
Download:pdf NKS-420.pdf
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