This is NKS NKS-R NKS-B News Seminars NKS Reports Phantom Library

You are here: Homepage Documents test View document

 

View document

NKS Programme Area:NKS-B
Research Area:Emergency preparedness
Report Number:NKS-291
Report Title:Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)
Activity Acronym:MUD
Authors:Jens Havskov Sørensen, Bjarne Amstrup, Henrik Feddersen, Ulrik Smith Korsholm, Jerzy Bartnicki, Inger-Lise Frogner, Heiko Klein, Alvaro Valdebenito, Peter Wind, Viel Ødegaard, Bent Lauritzen, Steen Cordt Hoe, Jonas Lindgren,
Abstract:The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived.
Keywords:nuclear emergency preparedness, atmospheric dispersion model, meteorology, uncertainty, ensemble prediction
Publication date:02 Sept 2013
ISBN:ISBN 978-87-7893-367-6
Number of downloads:2023
Download:pdf NKS-291.pdf
Contact NKS   NKS Sekretariatet
Boks 49
DK-4000 Roskilde
  Telephone +45 46 77 40 41
E-mail: nks@nks.org 
 

Address for visitors
Directions and map

Privacy policy

Cookie policy

 

Website last modified: 03 December 2024