This proposal presents the continuation of the exploration of the field of Probabilistic Consequence Analysis, which is often referred to as Level 3 PSA, that started in 2013. The background and motivation of the study is briefly outlined below, together with a short summary of the work ongoing during 2013, 2014 and the expected deliverables.
Level 3 PSA provides an assessment of off-site consequences from a radioactive release, which is not limited to nuclear reactor sites. Results from the site components and human factors (Level 1 PSA) and the severe accident and radioactive source term analysis (Level 2 PSA) are incorporated with meteorological data, radionuclide release data, population, agricultural and other data to estimate the risks to the public.
The typical outputs of a Level 3 PSA can vary, but often include collective radioactive doses, health effects (e.g. early fatalities, latent cancers), economic impacts, and agricultural effects. Interest and activities in Level 3 PSA have increased recently for several reasons. The foremost reason for the increased interest in Level 3 PSA is to better understand and characterize off-site consequences following the findings from the Fukushima accidents, the obligations utilities have from insurance companies and shareholders, and the obligations regulators have to the public's health and safety.
Project status and main deliverables:
The project includes several separate tasks that are being conducted in parallel, for detailed discussion of the tasks please see the project plan [L3PSA2]. Several of these tasks have been completed, while the pilot application and guidance document development tasks are currently underway. The project will be finalized in 2015. The project tasks address the following topics:
0. Industry and Literature Survey (Status: Completed)
1. Appropriate Risk Metrics (Status: Completed)
2. Regulation, guides and standards (Status: Continuation of IAEA & ANS/ASME work.)
3. Development of a Guidance document (Status: Activity started in 2014 and to be completed in 2015)
4. Pilot Application including tools for dispersion and consequence analysis (Status: Activity started in 2014 and to be completed in 2015)