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SYNTAGMA

 

Activity name

SYNTAGMA - Synthetic ground motions to support the Fennoscandian GMPEs
Project summary

In recent years earthquake source modelling methods have been developed, partly in NKS projects, to substantiate the expected earthquake ground motion in the ranges where empirical observations are not available in Fennoscandia. These ranges are, at the higher end of observed magnitudes and higher (Mw>4.0) and at distances closer than those available from instrumental recordings (0<d<40km). These ranges are very important contributor to the hazard, with de-aggregation showing well above 50% of the seismic hazard contribution from this interval.

 

The benchmark model results obtained in the NKS project AddGROUND highlighted shortcomings of the currently used Fennoscandian ground motion models (GMPEs) in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), and triggered the need to update these GMPEs. The update is proposed to be carried out in the Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety (SAFIR 2018). As a complementary activity to the GMPE update in the SAFIR program, we propose that in the NKS framework we use the previously developed modelling method (Fülöp et al, 2017) to generate larger data set of synthetic ground motions. This is the logical extension of the earlier work, resulting in a practically usable synthetic data set. The two proposed studies reinforce each other – the analysis of measurement data in the SAFIR project is extended by the synthetic data generated in the NKS project, which in turn is validated by the measurements. In addition to the technical outcome, this project also aims to establish and maintain a network of experts focused on diffuse seismicity areas of the Nordic Countries and further enhance the cooperation between VTT and Uppsala University in the area of earthquake source modelling. The project outcomes will support STUK and SSM, providing background information for the safety assessments of nuclear plants. The activity proposed here would be paired with the EVOGY project in SAFIR 2018 and be supervised from within that Ad-Hoc group, with participation from STUK, SSM, TVO, FORTUM and FENNOVOIMA.

Lead organisation VTT Technical Research Center of Finland
Contact person Ludovic Fülöp, Ludovic.fulop@vtt.fi, +358 40 593 4698

 

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