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NKS Programme Area:NKS-B
Research Area:Emergency preparedness
Report Number:NKS-360
Report Title:Fukushima Accident: UNcertainty of Atmospheric dispersion modelling (FAUNA)
Activity Acronym:FAUNA
Authors:Jens Havskov Sørensen, Bjarne Amstrup, Henrik Feddersen, Jerzy Bartnicki, Heiko Klein, Magne Simonsen, Bent Lauritzen, Steen Cordt Hoe, Carsten Israelson, Jonas Lindgren,
Abstract:By employing the methodology developed in the NKS-B project MUD, the FAUNA project has addressed assessment of the uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions of nuclear aerosols and gasses from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. A meteorological numerical ensemble forecasting system has been set up and applied to Japan and surroundings for the period of the main atmospheric release of radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP in 2011. The resulting analysed and forecast numerical weather-prediction ensemble-statistical data have been used by the Danish and Norwegian operational atmospheric dispersion models. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion are computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns are derived. Implications of using the methodology for nuclear emergency management and decision support are discussed.
Keywords:Fukushima Daiichi accident, nuclear emergency preparedness, atmospheric dispersion model, meteorology, uncertainty, ensemble prediction
Publication date:25 Febr 2016
ISBN:ISBN 978-87-7893-444-4
Number of downloads:636
Download:pdf NKS-360.pdf
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