This is NKS NKS-R NKS-B News Seminars NKS Reports Phantom Library

You are here: Homepage NKS Reports View document

List all reports List all NKS-R reports List all NKS-B reports Search Reports  
NKS Programme Area:NKS-B
Research Area:Emergency preparedness
Report Number:NKS-307
Report Title:Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)
Activity Acronym:MUD
Authors:Jens Havskov Sørensen, Bjarne Amstrup, Henrik Feddersen, Ulrik Smith Korsholm, Jerzy Bartnicki, Heiko Klein, Peter Wind, Bent Lauritzen, Steen Cordt Hoe, Carsten Israelson, Jonas Lindgren,
Abstract:The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced. In MUD, corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion are computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns are derived.
Keywords:nuclear emergency preparedness, atmospheric dispersion model, meteorology, uncertainty, ensemble prediction
Publication date:27 May 2014
ISBN:ISBN 978-87-7893-385-0
Number of downloads:1502
Download:pdf NKS-307.pdf
Contact NKS   NKS Sekretariatet
Boks 49
DK-4000 Roskilde
  Telephone +45 46 77 40 41
E-mail: nks@nks.org 
 

Address for visitors
Directions and map

Privacy Policy

Website last modified: 13 March 2019